← All Pages
theme

Private Credit

56m ago
Q2 direct lending volumes plunged 55% amid selectivity, reinforcing illiquidity premium opportunities despite fundraising rebound.
Redemption pressures in non-traded private credit funds eased modestly in Q2 2026 but remain elevated, with Blue Owl's flagship vehicles seeing 19-38% requests (capped at 5%). OBDC's dividend cut reflects sector headwinds, yet shares offer compelling yields at NAV discounts. Regulation scrutiny and default concerns persist without systemic escalation, reinforcing the case for selective buying amid the illiquidity premium.
Background
Tracking began on 2026-03-27.
Your thesis: I believe that the illiquidity premium which is increasing in private credit may present a buying opportunity
Recent Developments
Private credit under stress — Emerging litigation risks 1h ago
Challenges thesis: Heightened litigation risks from defaults and redemptions increase opacity and potential losses, potentially eroding the illiquidity premium opportunity before stabilization.
US direct-lending activity falls sharply in Q2 2026 even as private credit fundraising rebounds 3h ago
Reinforces thesis: Heightened selectivity and deployment slowdown amid ongoing pressures widen the illiquidity premium and support attractive entry points in private credit at current discounts.
WSJ: Even More Investors Want Out of Private Credit 7h ago
Reinforces thesis: Prolonged redemption pressures and potential forced sales could widen the illiquidity premium in private credit, creating attractive entry points at discounts.
Europe's financial stability watchdog examining private credit risks 9h ago
Reinforces thesis: Heightened regulatory scrutiny on liquidity and leverage amplifies visibility of illiquidity risks, potentially widening the illiquidity premium and creating entry points for patient capital in private credit.
Blue Owl acquires £1.3B UK private hospital portfolio from EPF 1d ago
Neutral: Diversifies Blue Owl's activities into real assets but does not directly address private credit liquidity, defaults, or regulatory pressures central to the thesis.
Tokenization discussed as potential solution to private credit liquidity mismatches 1d ago
Neutral: Offers a forward-looking liquidity innovation that could eventually support the illiquidity premium thesis but does not alter near-term credit or regulatory dynamics for OBDC.
Goldman and Churchill buck private credit redemption limit trend 1d ago
Reinforces thesis: Suggests differentiation among managers; stronger or better-structured funds may weather illiquidity better, supporting selective buying opportunities at discounted valuations like OBDC.
Barings private credit fund faces 10.9% redemption requests 1d ago
Neutral: Provides additional color on redemption pressures but does not introduce new systemic risks or directly impact OBDC valuation dynamics.
HSBC Retreats From Higher-Risk Private Credit Bets 2d ago
Reinforces thesis: Bank pullback signals ongoing liquidity stress and potential buying opportunity from widening illiquidity premium.
Regulators Are Coming for Private Credit: Key Takeaways 2d ago
Reinforces thesis: Heightened regulation risk could pressure valuations and amplify illiquidity premium opportunities in private credit.
News
analysis What is happening in private credit? J.P. Morgan Asset Management · NaNd ago
macro Private credit: Beyond direct lending Brookfield · NaNd ago
regulatory Report on Vulnerabilities in Private Credit Financial Stability Board · 64d ago
Themes
Credit Cockroaches high
Regulation Risk high
Tokenization in Private Credit medium
Secondary Markets in Private Credit medium
Semi-Liquid Fund Liquidity Tensions high
Movers
No mover data yet
Social Buzz
private credit fracturing low volume
@BobBusa57
Private credit is fracturing and Japan is floundering.
minimal
Watchlist
Q2 2026 BDC earnings (OBDC Aug 5) 2026-08-05
Key Players
European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB)
New scrutiny on private credit interconnections with banks